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Why there’s reason to believe the Maple Leafs’ putrid penalty kill will get better

SportsNets - Wed, 03/27/2024 - 12:36

Leafs fans, I’ll start with the good news: You don’t have to have an elite penalty kill to win a Stanley Cup. Last year we saw the Vegas Golden Knights hoist the Stanley Cup with a dismal kill rate of 71.7 per cent in the playoffs (beating the Florida Panthers, who finished with a 70.4 per cent playoff penalty kill), while the St. Louis Blues and Washington Capitals both won with PK percentages lower than Toronto’s current success rate of 76.3 per cent.

So yes, it is possible.

Still, let’s be clear: 76.3 is quite bad — 27th in the NHL bad to be exact — and in most cases the Cup champs were able to kill penalties. Five of the past 10 winners were above 83 per cent, a number that would be top-five in this year’s regular season.

In grand conclusion, a good PK is better than a bad one, and the Leafs have a bad one that needs to be better.

In that regard, there’s hope.

First, we have established that some of the key penalty killers for the Leafs are capable of being above average at it. Two seasons ago the Leafs were eighth in the league with a PK at 82.1 per cent and their top two penalty killing forwards that year were David Kampf and Mitch Marner. The most PK ice time by a Leafs defenceman that season was TJ Brodie, and third was Morgan Rielly.

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Last season the Leafs were 12th with a PK at 81.9 per cent, with the top killing forwards being, again, Kampf and Marner, with Calle Jarnkrok tied for third. Brodie was second to only Justin Holl in shorthanded ice time, and late addition Jake McCabe was immediately added to play just under two minutes per game on the PK.

The Maple Leafs today have a lot of the same horses who’ve had success. That said, they lost a lot of their secondary/depth PK guys, who they’ve been scrambling to replace. Holl and Mark Giordano ate piles of pucks for them, and neither will be a part of the Leafs’ Game 1 plans in this year’s playoffs. Jake Muzzin has long since gone as an option, and Luke Schenn came and went in a flash.

Up front, depth guys like Alex Kerfoot and Ilya Mikheyev and Pierre Engvall are gone, as are Ondrej Kase and Noel Acciari and Sam Lafferty.

But this is where I believe there’s room for optimism despite recent results.

Much of this season has essentially been a tryout for penalty kill roles, meaning we’ve seen William Nylander and Auston Matthews get some run. It’s good that they got that experience, but there’s a learning curve taking on any new assignment in the NHL. Bobby McMann has been getting an opportunity of late, Noah Gregor gets over a minute of PK time per game, and every defenceman with a pulse has been given a chance to take hold of a spot. You can’t be experienced without being given experience, and that’s what a lot of this season has been about for Toronto.

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Brad Treliving recognized his team’s weakness moving towards the trade deadline and acquired a penalty killer in Ilya Lyubushkin, as well as Joel Edmundson and Connor Dewar, all of whom made some mistakes in their first few games on the PK that led to shots and goals against. Those early errors are only natural, as penalty killing is challenging and reading off new teammates’ tendencies (and where coaches want you to be aggressive) can make it doubly hard.

In that effort to improve, the Leafs acquired the aforementioned Lyubushkin at the end of February, with the other two names joining later in the month. But, by the numbers, it’s only gotten worse.

In the middle row of this table below – the month of March – you can see how miscommunication has led to more Grade A looks against, resulting in the worst expected goals against percentage in the league for the month (thanks to SportLogiq for this great info).

LEAFS ON THE PK

OCT-FEB

MARCH

TOTAL

Zone Denial Rate

43.1 (2nd)

35.1 (19th)

41.6 (3rd)

Slot Shots Against

1.03 (19th)

1.05 (22nd)

1.03 (20th)

Slot One-Timers

0.32 (9th)

0.51 (29th)

0.35 (22nd)

Inner Slot Against

0.41 (4th)

0.44 (13th)

0.41 (4th)

xG Against

0.24 (8th)

0.39 (32nd)

0.26 (19th)

Goals Against

0.27 (23rd)

0.37 (29th)

0.29 (25th)

Now, on Tuesday against the Devils I thought Toronto’s penalty kill looked better, going two for two against New Jersey. And keep in mind what’s happened since they made these additions that led to these numbers. Lyubushkin missed about two weeks and was out of a rhythm, Marner has missed around three weeks, and it spans the time where Edmundson (now out himself) and Dewar have been sorting things out. Even Brodie was given a couple nights off as a scratch.

The Leafs haven’t been able to field consistent pairs up front or on defence.

It’s not impossible to see a world where the three new PK players come back, start to feel comfortable in their rotations, play more aggressively, and improve at least a bit. It’s not hard to see how having everyone healthy would allow the Leafs some stability, rather than a stream of PK tryouts. As much as those numbers above look abjectly awful, if Toronto’s top penalty killing defencemen include players who haven’t been here and haven’t been on the ice together, it doesn’t exactly tell us what their PK would look like with everyone healthy.

Given the success the Leafs’ top penalty killers have had in the past, you’d have to think it would improve some.

And if it improves some small amount – let’s say it keeps one or two more goals against out per week – suddenly you’re looking at a PK that’s closer to 80 per cent than 76 per cent, which is well in line with the penalty kills of teams that have been able to compete deep into the playoffs.

In the post-season, you almost always play against good power plays. Everybody is going to give up some PK goals. But if the Leafs’ power play can hold up its end of the bargain, there’s no reason why a healthy Leafs kill couldn’t get to the modest goal of being “average,” and allow them to have a combined special teams that are an advantage, rather than the opposite.

There’s no guarantee that health gets you there, but there’s enough reason to think the PK should be better over the weeks ahead, as the Leafs get closer to the playoffs.

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Dodgers, catcher Will Smith finalize 10-year, $140M extension

SportsNets - Wed, 03/27/2024 - 12:35

The Los Angeles Dodgers and catcher Will Smith are ina agreement on a 10-year, $140 million extension, the team announced Wednesday.

Smith, 28, is in his sixth season with the Dodgers after being selected in the first round of the 2016 MLB Draft out of the University of Louisville.

He would have been eligible for free agency following the 2025 season.

A first-time All-Star in 2023, Smith posted a .261/.359/.438 slash line with 19 home runs and 76 RBIs in 126 games.

In the Dodgers’ two games in Korea to open the 2024 season, Smith went 5-for-10 with a double and two RBIs.

Smith was a member of Los Angeles’ 2020 World Series-winning team, and has appeared in the post-season in all five of his major league seasons. In 154 career playoff at-bats, he has hit .221/.297/.390.

MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported that there will be deferred money as part of the deal.

The move comes after a major off-season of spending for the Dodgers, who added Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Teoscar Hernandez and Tyler Glasnow.

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Marner remains out as Maple Leafs go through a bit of an injury crisis

SportsNets - Wed, 03/27/2024 - 12:31

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Vancouver Canucks move Thatcher Demko to LTIR, recall Bains

SportsNets - Wed, 03/27/2024 - 12:15

The Vancouver Canucks have placed all-star goalie Thatcher Demko on the long-term injured reserve list retroactively.

“It’s just cap related,” coach Rick Tocchet said after practice Wednesday. “We get some cap relief, that’s all it is.” 

The 28-year-old netminder has been considered week to week since being sidelined with a lower-body injury midway through Vancouver’s 5-0 win over the Winnipeg Jets on March 9.

That injury designation hasn’t changed, Tocchet said.

Demko boasts a 34-18-2 record this season, with a .917 save percentage, a 2.47 goals-against average and five shutouts.

Casey DeSmith has taken over the starting job for Vancouver, going 3-2-1 since Demko’s injury. He has a .899 save percentage on the season with a 2.73 goals-against average and one shutout. 

The earliest Demko could be back in the Canucks’ lineup is April 6 against the Kings in Los Angeles.

He’s expected to be a key piece as Vancouver (45-19-8) prepares for its first playoff appearance since the COVID-shortened 2019-20 campaign. 

Canucks general manager Patrik Allvin also announced Wednesday that the club has called up forward Arshdeep Bains from the Abbotsford Canucks of the American Hockey League. 

“I’d like to see where (Bains is) at,” Tocchet said, noting he isn’t sure whether the 23-year-old winger will slot into the lineup when the Canucks host the Dallas Stars on Thursday. 

Bains played five games for the NHL team in February before being sent back to Abbotsford. 

“He went down, he’s done a couple of things that we like, and he’s got some speed,” Tocchet said. 

Vancouver may get another forward back in the lineup Thursday. 

Dakota Joshua practised in a full-contact jersey on Wednesday for the first time since suffering an upper-body injury in Vancouver’s 4-2 win over the Blackhawks in Chicago on Feb. 13. 

The physical winger, who’s set to become an unrestricted free agent this summer, has a career-high 26 points (13 goals, 13 assists) this season.

Sitting out injured “hasn’t been fun,” Joshua said.

“It feels like forever,” he said. “But at this point, that’s behind me and I’m moving forward.”

With files from Sportsnet Staff.

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Drowning in debt, Canadian athletes ask for raise in monthly 'carding' money in federal budget

CBC Sports - Wed, 03/27/2024 - 11:51

With money tight and the Paris Olympics and Paralympics on the horizon, Canada's athletes are asking for a $6.3 million raise to the Athletes Assistance Program, informally known as "carding" money, in the federal government's April 16 budget.

Ontario’s gaming commission monitoring Jontay Porter investigation

SportsNets - Wed, 03/27/2024 - 11:45

The Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario says it’s closely monitoring an investigation of Toronto Raptors backup centre Jontay Porter.

The NBA confirmed Monday that it’s investigating Porter after irregularities in bets surrounding his performances in two recent Raptors games.

Ontario is currently the only province where registered private vendors can offer online sports betting.

AGCO is responsible for regulating betting in the province including safeguarding against odds manipulation, match-fixing and other sports betting integrity issues. 

A spokesman says AGCO is currently engaged with all relevant parties on the Porter investigation, including registered gaming operators, independent integrity monitors and the Ontario Provincial Police.

Since the Criminal Code of Canada prohibits cheating while playing a game or betting with intent to defraud someone, provincial police will determine if any criminal investigation is warranted.

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Maple Leafs’ Mitch Marner won’t return this week, Rielly questionable

SportsNets - Wed, 03/27/2024 - 11:40

Toronto Maple Leafs head coach Sheldon Keefe on Wednesday ruled Mitch Marner out for the remainder of this week’s schedule, meaning the star winger will miss a minimum of 10 games with his ankle injury.

Marner participated in Wednesday’s skills session in a grey extras jersey. Keefe told reporters that Marner will be a full participant in Friday’s practice. Marner has not played since March 7.

The Maple Leafs host Washington on Thursday and play in Buffalo on Saturday.

In other Maple Leafs news, defenceman Morgan Rielly is considered questionable for the game against the Capitals. The top-pair defenceman missed Tuesday’s loss to the Devils with an upper-body injury.

Keefe also announced that Joseph Woll will start in net against the Capitals, his third-straight start. Ilya Samsonov, who left Saturday’s win over the Oilers with an injury, did skate on Wednesday and told reporters he is good to go.

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