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Photos: D-Backs at Mariners Friday Night Lights

Seattle Times Sport - Fri, 04/26/2024 - 20:45

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A Look at Qualification for the 2025 Club World Cup - as of April 26, 2024

Seattle Sport News Reddit - Fri, 04/26/2024 - 19:12

It's time for yet another look at who's going to the Club World Cup, to be held in 2025 in the United States.

Some notes on conventions:

I use trigrams for clubs on first reference, even when we all know who we're talking about.
For championship competitions that take place over two calendar years (in other words, what would be "fall to spring" in the Northern Hemisphere), we will use the later year to denote the championship.
FIFA has indicated that there will be a maximum of two clubs from any one nation in this tournament, unless they qualify through named berths. "Named berths" in this context will USUALLY mean clubs that qualified by winning their continent's championship during the qualifying timeframe.
Any berth that is left over after all "named berths" are accounted for will use the FIFA Club Coefficients for that continent. I will refer to these as an "at-large berth".

First things first is the Club Coefficients methodology.

CLUB RANKINGS

The Club Coefficients award clubs with points for their performance in continental championships starting from the group stage of the competition. No points are awarded for qualifying rounds.

Most continents will use the following scheme:

3 points per victory
1 point per draw
3 points for advancing to the next round (This includes both advancing to the knockout rounds and then each additional knockout round advanced to.)

UEFA, having had a coefficient system before the FIFA Club Coefficients, will use their own for this competition:

2 points per victory
1 point per draw
4 points for qualifying for the group stage
5 points for qualifying for the knockout rounds
1 point for each additional round advanced

There's also a couple of assumptions I am making with these projections:

It looks like everyone got advancement points just for reaching the group stage - so nobody who gets that far goes home with 0 points.
It looks like all points are awarded for game results after 90 minutes.

Note that in any case, if we're talking about the highest possible point total for a club, we are usually assuming that they gain as many points as possible while not winning the championship.

For tournaments with a single-leg final, this implies a draw in the final (and losing in extra time or via kicks from the spot).
For tournaments with a two-leg final, this implies winning one game of the final and losing the other.

FIFA has also announced what happens if two clubs are level on points, with the tiebreakers being (in order):

Farthest advancement
Most recent farthest advancement
Total goal differential
Total goals scored

UEFA Original Allotment

UEFA was allotted twelve berths in the competition. They go to the champions from 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024, as well as eight at-large berths.

Analysis

Chelsea [ENG] won in 2021, Real Madrid [ESP] in 2022, and **Manchester City [ENG] in 2023 to take up three berths.
A fourth berth goes to the winner of the 2023-24 UEFA Champions League.
- The semifinals are set with the following matchups (first team listed hosts second leg):
  - Paris Saint-Germain [FRA] v Borussia Dortmund [GER]
  - Real Madrid [ESP] v Bayern Munich [GER]
- The first legs will be played the midweek of May 1; the second legs on the midweek of May 8; the final is set for June 1.
Note that since two English clubs won Champions League, no English club can qualify via an at-large berth - which means Liverpool [ENG], despite being tied for sixth in the rankings, cannot qualify.
Nine clubs have locked up at least an at-large berth, as they cannot be outflanked by two clubs from their own country and will otherwise finish in the top eight.
- The most any club can gain is 5 points - two wins, the advancement, and a drawn final.
- Bayern Munich [GER] (107 points), Paris Saint-Germain [FRA] (85), Inter Milan [ITA] (76), Borussia Dortmund [GER] (74), Porto [POR] (68), Atlético Madrid [ESP] (67), Benfica [POR] (52), and Juventus [ITA] (47) are all safe; Juventus is currently the eighth qualifier and no team still in the competition can pass them.
- Note that of the remaining sides, Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, and PSG would all convert from an at-large berth to a champions berth should they win Champions League; meanwhile, Real Madrid winning would necessitate a ninth at-large berth being given out. Either way, Red Bull Salzburg [AUT] are assured of qualifying as well.

CAF Original Allotment

CAF was allotted four berths in the competition. These will nominally go to the continental champions in 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024.

Analysis

Al Ahly [EGY] won in 2021 and 2023, and Wydad AC [MAR] in 2022, claiming two of the four berths.
A third berth is expected to be awarded to the winner of the 2024 CAF Champions League.
As Al Ahly won twice, an at-large berth does exist.
- The finals are set with the following matchup (first listed team hosts the second match):
  - Al Ahly [EGY] v Espérance de Tunis [TUN]
- The two-legged final is scheduled for May 18 and May 25.
As of right now, both Espérance de Tunis [TUN] and Mamelodi Sundowns [RSA] are guaranteed at least at-large berths.
- ES Tunis, with their two victories over Mamelodi Sundowns, passed them by one point to be tops on the Club Rankings among non-champions.
- Either ES Tunis wins CAF Champions League and hands the at-large berth to Mamelodi Sundowns, or Al Ahly wins another CAF Champions League and necessitates the creation of a second at-large berth.

AFC Original Allotment

AFC was allotted four berths in the competition. These will nominally go to the continental champions in 2021, 2022, and 2023-24. An additional berth will be awarded to the highest eligible club in the Club Ranking.

Analysis

Al-Hilal [KSA] won in 2021, and Urawa Red Diamonds [JPN] in 2022, claiming two of the four berths.
A third berth is expected to be awarded to the winner of the 2023-24 AFC Champions League.
- The final is set with the following matchups (first listed team hosts the second match):
  - Al Ain [UAE] v Yokohama F. Marinos [JPN]
- The two-legged final is scheduled for May 18 and May 25.
With neither club in the final being anywhere close to earning an at-large berth, we know that the one at-large berth is going to Ulsan Hyundai [KOR]. Their victory over Yokohama in the first leg of the semifinals secured their spot.

Concacaf Original Allotment

Concacaf was allotted four berths in the competition. These will nominally go to the continental champions in 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024.

Analysis

Monterrey [MEX] won in 2021, Seattle [USA] in 2022, and León [MEX] in 2023, claiming three of the four berths.
The fourth berth is expected to be awarded to the winner of the 2024 Concacaf Champions Cup.
- The semifinals are set with the following matchups (first listed team hosts the second match):
  - Pachuca [MEX] v América [MEX] (1-1 in the first leg)
  - Monterrey [MEX] v Columbus [USA] (2-1 Columbus in the first leg)
- The second leg of the semifinals is scheduled for April 30 and May 1; the final is set for June 2.
- Note that the Concacaf Champions Cup final is hosted by the club that performed the best in the tournament (not including the first round.)
  - If Monterrey advances to the final, they will host the final.
  - If Columbus advances to the final, they can only host the final if AND ONLY IF the following three things happen:
    - They defeat Monterrey in the second leg.
    - Pachuca and América draw their second leg.
    - América advances to the final.
  - If Columbus advances to the final and any one of those three things does not happen, either Pachuca or América will host the final.
Note that Monterrey is still alive in the tournament; should they win, an at-large berth will be opened up.
- Note that no Mexican club may qualify through an at-large berth as two Mexican clubs are already in the field.
- It has apparently been decided that for the 2024 edition of Concacaf Champions Cup, points will be accured starting with the Round of 16.
- Philadelphia [USA] has the so-called "catbird seat" clinched, as they are at 41 points and no non-Mexican club can catch them.

OFC Original Allotment

OFC was allotted one berth in the competition. This berth goes to the champion (from 2022, 2023, or 2024) that is highest in the club ranking.

Analysis

Auckland City [NZL] won both the 2022 and 2023 competition and no club could possibly earn enough points to pass them, so they've qualified.

CONMEBOL Original Allotment

CONMEBOL was allotted six berths in the competition. These will nominally go to the continental champions in 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024, as well as the top two eligible clubs in the Club Rankings.

Analysis

Palmeiras [BRA] won in 2021, Flamengo [BRA] in 2022, and Fluminense [BRA] in 2023, claiming three of the six berths.
The fourth berth is expected to be awarded to the winner of the 2024 Copa Libertadores.
Two berths will be given as at-large berths.
- Note that no Brazilian club may take an at-large berth, as three Brazilian clubs are already in the field.
- One berth is almost assuredly going to River Plate [ARG]. They sit on 76 points and are the highest-ranking non-Brazilian club left in the field. The nearest non-Brazilian clubs left that is still in Copa Libertadores for 2024 are Nacional [URU] on 49 points and Cerro Porteño [PAR] on 47 points. Keep in mind that they'd need TWO different clubs to pass them in points without winning Libertadores; there's only 40 possible points left and only one club can earn that many without winning (a second club could only earn 33 points - three more group stage matches, five knockout wins, and three advancements.)
- Boca Juniors [ARG] looks relatively safe as well. They will be stuck on 71 points, since they didn't qualify for Libertadores; but again, they would need somebody below them to score 23 more points - which necessitates advancing to AT LEAST the quarterfinals. They, however, could be undone by an Argentine club not named River Plate winning Libertadores.
- If one of our previous champions wins in 2024, that will open up another berth, with the current likely recipient being Olimpia [PAR]. They're on 57 points but did not qualify for 2024, so that's where they will stay - although Nacional only needs 9 points to pass and that could be as simple as two more wins in the group stage and advancing to the knockout stages.
- Group stage matches are scheduled for the weeks of May 7, May 14, and May 28.

United States Original Allotment

The USA was allotted one berth in the competition, but the criteria has not been announced as of yet.

Analysis

The cynic in me says that they're going to force Inter Miami [USA] into the tournament. But apparently FIFA has decided to pick a path by sporting merit.

At the same time, I don't think that the sporting path is going to be solely attached to this season. I think the fairest method should be the MLS Cup Champion (from 2021 to 2024) that had the most regular season points over the four-year period. Currently that would be Los Angeles FC [USA] on 174 points but neither Columbus [USA] (162) nor NYCFC [USA] (152) are that far behind!

CONCLUSION

We now know the identity of 26 clubs; 6 to go!

Next planned update for this is end of May, when the group stage of Copa Libertadores is finished.

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